Russia-Ukraine war could reach 2 million military casualties as conflict continues
Now approaching its fourth year, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has inflicted a staggering human cost on both sides, with military casualties potentially reaching 2 million by the spring of 2026. These figures are according to a major new analysis by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Slow advances, heavy casualties
The CSIS brief, published on 27 January, paints a bleak picture of a conflict that has become a war of attrition, where vast numbers of killed, wounded or missing troops have yielded only modest territorial gains. It estimates that Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more than any major power in any conflict since the Second World War, while Ukrainian military casualties are put at roughly 500,000–600,000.
Within those figures, the analysis suggests that as many as 325,000 Russian soldiers may have been killed between February 2022 and December 2025. Ukrainian fatalities are estimated at 100,000–140,000 over the same period, a heavy toll for a country with a far smaller population and armed forces.
The combined casualties of killed, wounded or missing, stood at about 1.8 million by the end of 2025 and could hit 2 million in the coming months as fighting continues.
Despite these enormous losses, the CSIS study underlines that territorial gains have been limited. Since early 2024, Russian forces have advanced at average rates of just 15–70 metres per day in key offensives, slower than some of the most infamous battles of the early twentieth century, including the First World War’s Battle of the Somme, and have secured only a fraction of additional Ukrainian territory.
In total, Russia controls roughly 20 per cent of Ukraine, a figure that includes areas held since before the February 2022 invasion, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Recent advances have measured in mere kilometres over many months in major sectors of the front line.
Analysts say this reflects a grinding strategy that accepts high casualties in hopes of attriting Ukrainian forces. The emphasis on infantry assaults, heavy artillery barrages, drones and other stand-off weapons has inflicted heavy losses on both sides while failing to deliver decisive breakthroughs.
Economic pressure on both sides
The CSIS report also highlights the broader strain on Russia’s economy caused by the prolonged conflict. While Western sanctions have not collapsed the Russian economy, they have contributed to declining manufacturing output, high inflation and a weakening labour market. Growth slowed to just 0.6 per cent in 2025, and Russia is falling behind globally in key technologies such as artificial intelligence, with no Russian firms in the world’s top 100 technology companies by market capitalisation.
The attritional nature of the war also poses challenges for Ukraine. Kyiv has endured heavy losses and continues to grapple with war fatigue, infrastructure damage and economic disruption even as it strengthens defences and exploits technological advantages, particularly in drone warfare.
Western involvement
Against this backdrop, diplomatic efforts to end hostilities continue, albeit with limited progress. Talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States have resumed, with all sides expressing cautious engagement. Yet territorial control remains the central stumbling block, especially Ukraine’s insistence on restoring its pre-invasion borders and Russia’s demand to retain all territory it currently holds.
For European governments, the scale and duration of the war have reinforced concerns about long-term security on the continent. The conflict has reshaped defence policy across the European Union, with member states increasing military spending, expanding arms production and deepening cooperation with Ukraine in training, logistics and air defence.
Belgium has been part of this broader European response, providing military assistance, humanitarian aid and political support to Kyiv since the start of the full-scale invasion. Belgian authorities have repeatedly framed their involvement as a matter of European security and international law, stressing the need to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and deter further Russian aggression. Belgian troops have also participated in training missions for Ukrainian forces alongside other EU and NATO partners.
For Western governments backing Ukraine, the sheer scale of military losses and the slow pace of battlefield change raise urgent questions about strategy, long-term objectives and the sustainability of continued support if the conflict drags on.
© PHOTO DMYTRO SMOLLENKO/UKRINFORM/NURPHOTO
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