Rising energy prices could trigger wage indexation as soon as July
Rising energy prices could push Belgium’s pivot index past its threshold as early as July, according to new inflation forecasts published on Tuesday by the Federal Planning Bureau. If that happens, the salaries and benefits of civil servants would increase in October.
In its previous forecast at the beginning of February, the Planning Bureau expected the pivot index to be exceeded only in November. The latest outlook was published a week later than usual because the bureau wanted to assess the impact of higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
In its new calculations, the Planning Bureau used energy prices on futures markets that are significantly higher than those used a month earlier. Compared with the previous forecast, oil prices are around a quarter higher, natural gas prices almost half higher, and electricity prices roughly one sixth higher.
2.6 per cent inflation
The rising energy costs are expected to push inflation up. The bureau now forecasts inflation of 2.6 per cent in 2026, well above the 1.9 per cent predicted last month. This would cause the pivot index to be exceeded in July, four months earlier than previously expected, triggering an indexation of benefits and civil servants’ wages in October.
Indexation normally amounts to 2 per cent. However, the federal government has decided to cap automatic wage indexation once in both 2026 and 2028. This restriction applies to wages above €4,000 gross per month and to benefits above €2,000 gross per month.
The Federal Planning Bureau also expects the pivot index to be exceeded again in August 2027, whereas earlier forecasts suggested this would not happen next year. The most recent threshold crossing occurred in December 2025, which means civil servants’ salaries and benefits increased by the full 2 per cent this month.
© BELGA PHOTO NICOLAS MAETERLINCK
Related news
