Report spells out how climate change puts economy and national security at threat
Belgium’s economy and national security will be compromised if the country doesn’t take additional climate measures, according to the Belgian Climate Risk Assessment. The study, published on Thursday by climate institute Cerac, warns of pandemics, thousands of heat-related deaths, and infrastructure and food problems that Belgium is not prepared for.
Cerac offers insights and recommendations to make Belgium more resilient to the effects of anthropogenic climate change. In its study, the institute addresses what Belgium can expect.
“The question is no longer if climate disasters will happen, but when and how we will respond,” the report says. “This demands a shift in mindset in which climate change is considered a fundamental and society-wide threat for national security.”
A consistent adaptation policy is needed to tackle the problems, the institute says, but Belgium is not in a position to put that in place.
Vulnerable groups
The problem must be addressed “with the same urgency and commitment of resources as other major threats to security”. Vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, the socially disadvantaged, farmers and people living in urban areas, will be the first to feel the effects, but in the long term, the whole of society will be affected.
"The question is no longer if climate disasters will happen, but when and how we will respond"
Among other things, the institute paints a disastrous picture for the economy. The floods that hit much of Wallonia and Limburg in 2021 caused damage estimated at 5.2 billion euros, and future disasters could cost similar amounts.
If nothing changes, Cerac estimates that public debt will increase by 15 per cent by 2050, causing a budget adjustment equivalent to 1.4 per cent of GDP.
“With the increase in climate-related disasters, reinsurers could leave the Belgian market, leaving citizens and businesses unable to insure themselves, or only at much higher prices,” says economist Grégory Truong.
Food supply
The impact will also be felt in broader economic sectors. Water scarcity threatens crucial sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, the food industry and tourism. In the future, annual losses in agriculture could run into tens of millions of euros. This income instability could cause problems in agricultural employment and uncertainty in food supply.
Climate change will also bring with it health risks. In a positive scenario, Cerac expects more than 1,000 additional deaths a year due to heat. This heat will also cause more pollen allergies, mental health problems and air pollution.
Humans and animals will be more frequently faced with pandemics such as avian influenza, bluetongue, dengue and chikungunya, which are spread by exotic mosquitoes.
“Without adaptation, there is a risk of further overburdening the healthcare system,” says Cerac.
Cars piled up at a roundabout in Verviers after floods lashed western Europe, August 2021 © PHOTO FRANCOIS WALSCHAERTS / AFP
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