Fewer unemployed to end up on social assistance than feared, study finds
The number of long-term unemployed people transitioning to social assistance from Public Social Welfare Centres (OCMW/CPAS) is likely to be lower than initial figures suggested, according to a new analysis by KU Leuven researchers.
In January 2026, unemployment benefits in Belgium were capped to a maximum of two years. Initial figures from the government indicated that almost half of those who lost their benefits in the first wave are now receiving social assistance.
A new study by KU Leuven researchers argues that this figure is not representative of the entire year. According to the study, around 34 per cent of all those affected will ultimately move onto social assistance, with estimates ranging from 27 to 42 per cent. In absolute terms, around 180,000 people are affected in total, of whom approximately 52,000 are expected to apply for social assistance in 2026.
Single people more likely to apply
The 46.5 per cent from the first wave in January is not representative of the entirety of 2026, the researchers say, because it had a disproportionately high share of single people compared to following waves in March and April. Single people are more likely to qualify for social assistance because they cannot rely on a partner's income.
Among cohabiting couples and heads of households the transition rate is markedly lower. As the proportion of single people decreases and the share of cohabiting couples rises in later waves, the researchers expect the transition rate to fall accordingly.
A further factor is that unemployed people losing benefits in later waves have been out of work for shorter periods, placing them closer to the labour market and increasing their likelihood of finding employment. Those who have been unemployed for 20 years, as was common in the first wave, face considerably worse job prospects.
The researchers stress that these are estimates based on different scenarios, and that the final figures will depend on labour market conditions and how strictly the new rules are applied. They also note that OCMW/CPAS are processing significantly more applications than they ultimately approve.
© BELGA PHOTO DIRK WAEM
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