Elections 2024: Prime minister's party tumbles to bottom of the polls

In the latest survey conducted by various Belgian media outlets, it appears that prime minister Alexander De Croo's Open VLD (Flemish liberals) is on track to become the smallest party in Flanders while far-right Vlaams Belang remains firmly in first place. In Brussels, the far-left PVDA emerges as the dominant force.

The poll, a collaborative effort between TV channels RTL and VTM and newspapers Het Laatste Nieuws and Le Soir, surveyed just under 1,000 people in Flanders between 4 and 11 December. This means the results take into account recent disputes and personnel changes within Open VLD and the resignation of Conner Rousseau, leader of Flemish socialists Vooruit. Despite a margin of error of up to 3.2 per cent, a discernible downward trajectory is evident for the latter two parties.

Steep decline

Open VLD continues its descent after experiencing a clear decline in September. From being the fourth-largest party in Flanders with 13.5 per cent of the vote in 2019, the liberals now hover near the bottom with 7.1 per cent.

Vooruit, which secured 15.4 per cent in the same poll in September, now registers at 13.8 per cent. This would keep Vooruit as the third-largest party in Flanders behind far-right Vlaams Belang (polling at 25 per cent) and N-VA (Flemish nationalists, 22 per cent).

Christian democrats CD&V, a federal and Flemish coalition partner of Open VLD, surpasses the PM's party with 11.7 per cent, as do green party Groen (9.2 per cent) and PVDA, positioning the far-left party as the fifth-largest Flemish party with 9.7 per cent.

Regional differences

In Brussels, PVDA appears to be headed for the number one spot. They now claim almost 20 per cent of the vote, surpassing French-speaking liberal party MR, which slips to 18.1 per cent. Greens Ecolo, the capital's largest party in 2019, are in third place with 16.8 per cent, and social democrats PS follow with 15.7 per cent.

While PS maintain their dominance in Wallonia with 23.9 per cent of electoral intentions, MR follows closely with 20 per cent. PVDA experiences a significant drop of 5.8 percentage points compared to the September poll, landing at 14 per cent.


Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo © PHOTO MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP

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