Well connected, Belgium would make do even without Russian gas; by itself, only 8 days

Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has previously warned that an immediate and total ban would have “a devastating impact” on the European – and therefore the Belgian – economy. As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, Belgium is making strategic choices to become less dependent on Russian oil.

Belgium is not at risk of having gas supply problems in the short term. As De Croo has repeatedly stated, there is currently no gas shortage in the EU. Instead, there is market volatility driven by uncertainty – exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

“Belgium is a 100% importer of natural gas since we do not have a pocket of natural gas in our subsoil – as is the case in the Netherlands, for example,” Laurent Remy, spokesperson for the country’s natural gas system operator Fluxys, told Le Soir.

By itself, Belgium would not survive for long if Russian gas is shut off. “We have storage in an aquifer in Loenhout, with a maximum capacity of 9 terawatt-hours, given that annual Belgian consumption is 180-190 terawatt-hours. So our storage is just over 5% of our annual consumption,” Remy said.

“Converted into time, this would cover the total consumption in Belgium, with extremely low temperatures, for eight days.”

Well connected

But Belgium is well connected. Via Zeebrugge alone, Belgium has access to around 20 producers worldwide for liquefied gas transported by LNG ships, with one ship being able to transport 170,000 m3 of liquefied gas, which can supply a medium-sized town like Bruges for more than a year, according to Remy. “We have 18 interconnection points and can therefore move gas in all directions and have access to all sources of supply,” he adds.

That’s why Fluxys stresses that there are no gas supply problems at the moment and the 18 interconnection points will never be unavailable at the same time: theoretically, 50% of annual consumption in Belgium can be covered with the Zeebrugge terminal alone. 

Other suppliers

Belgium is not very dependent on Russian gas: it represents about 6.5% of imports, according to figures by the Federal Public Economy Service. “Since 1 January, in Belgium, flows have been going mainly from the west to the east of the country and to the Netherlands, the quantities of Russian gas entering our network are extremely limited, almost zero.”

Belgium’s main gas supplier is Norway: 43% of imports in 2021 were located at the landing point of the pipeline linking Belgium to the Norwegian gas fields. “On Thursday 7 April, for example, Norway delivered enough gas to Zeebrugge to supply Belgium, given that 3 million households use natural gas for heating.”

The Netherlands is a second supplier of the gas consumed in Belgium, with the rest coming from the UK and various countries around the world, including Qatar, according to the FPS Economy.

This means that if Belgium were an island, it would hardly suffer from a halt in Russian gas imports. As the country is an EU Member State, a European solidarity mechanism comes into play. The interconnected markets, too, will have an influence on prices. “Our network can transport additional quantities of gas if necessary, but we do not have a vision of what molecules will be available on the market at that time,” added Remy.

Prices up? 

While this is the assumption that many are making – including Flemish Energy Minister Zuhal Demir, who is blocking Belgium from calling for more EU climate ambition because of it – a price rise is not guaranteed, according to the FPS Economy.

“Even without Russian gas, the supply is assured. Belgium can easily import natural gas from other sources through various channels, by ship and by pipeline, in all possible directions,” it said, referring to Zeebrugge, where Belgium is connected to nearly 20 global gas producers.

However, the fact remains that if many countries all moved to different suppliers at the same time, or increased their imports from these other countries, this would have an impact on prices. 

“The limitation of supplies from Russia could have an additional impact on market prices. Gas prices will probably remain high in the short term,” the FPS Economy acknowledged.

For the rest, price forecasts remain uncertain. One thing is certain, said Federal Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten. “Let’s remember that at the time of the invasion of Ukraine, the price of gas had jumped to €300/megawatt-hour, we are back to €100/megawatt-hour.” Still, this clearly shows that the market is “very reactive to crises, with variations that can be gigantic.”

(VIV)

Header image: © Belga Photo (KURT DESPLENTER). LNG fluxys terminal in Zeebrugge harbour, Tuesday 08 March 2022.