Elia study explores best way to meet Belgium's growing energy demands
In response to a recent study conducted by high-voltage grid operator Elia, outgoing Energy minister of energy Tinne Van der Straeten says that renewable energy is the most profitable and reliable system to meet Belgium's future electricity needs.
The Elia study was designed to assess how Belgium's demand for electricity will evolve and explore options to meet that demand in the most low-carbon and cost-effective way.
The findings indicate that electricity consumption is set to more than double by 2050, despite the overall energy consumption potentially falling by 40 per cent due to improved efficiencies. As industrial processes, transportation and household heating become increasingly electrified, Beglium's electricity needs will continue to grow.
However, the study also highlights a critical gap. With the current and planned renewable energy projects, including wind farms in the Princess Elisabeth zone of the North Sea, Belgium can only generate half of the electricity it will require in the long term. As such, the country would have to import between 70 and 90 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity by 2050 unless new measures are put in place.
Elia's CEO, Frédéric Dunon, suggests that Belgium adopt a multi-pronged approach to address this growing demand. "A mix of measures is needed in any case," he said.
The study presents several scenarios for reducing the country's reliance on electricity imports, from expanding domestic renewable energy production with more wind turbines and solar panels to investing in foreign offshore wind farms in countries like Denmark, Norway and Ireland, or building new nuclear power stations.
"Doing nothing is always the most expensive option"
Of these options, the Elia study suggests that nuclear energy may not be the most economical choice.
According to the findings, constructing new nuclear reactors is typically more expensive than investing in offshore wind farms. A scenario involving 8 gigawatts of offshore wind farms from abroad or 4 gigawatts of new nuclear reactors is estimated to cost around 20.5 billion euros a year. This is still more cost-effective than the “do-nothing” approach, which would incur annual costs of 22 billion euros. “Doing nothing is always the most expensive option,” Dunon said.
Advance notice
The study also highlights the long timelines involved in transforming the energy landscape. Adapting the electricity grid to accommodate new energy sources could take 10 to 15 years, making it imperative that the next government acts swiftly to decide on the future energy mix.
“The government's choice is therefore decisive,” Dunon said, noting that infrastructural changes require substantial lead time.
A notable point from the study is the extension of Belgium’s existing nuclear power plants. While expanding renewable energy is viewed as a “no-regret” measure for reducing costs, extending the operation of nuclear plants like Tihange 3 and Doel 4 beyond 2035 could also be economically and technically viable. Elia recommends that such decisions be made well in advance.
Van der Straeten, however, remains cautious about expanding nuclear energy. "Those who advocate the expansion of nuclear energy will have to prove that this really is the safest, most reliable and cheapest option," she said.
Energy minister Tinne Van der Straeten at during the event Why Nuclear Won't Save the Climate, March 2024 © BELGA PHOTO ERIC LALMAND
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