Former president Rumen Radev has secured a commanding victory in Bulgaria’s latest parliamentary election. His win is fuelling debate over whether the country is drifting towards a more personalised, “strongman” style of politics seen elsewhere in Europe.
Preliminary results from the Central Election Commission, based on more than 97% of ballots counted, show Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria winning about 44.7% of the vote, far ahead of rivals including Boyko Borissov’s GERB-UDF on 13.4% and the reformist coalition Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria on 12.8%. Smaller parties, including the Movement for Rights and Freedoms and the nationalist Vazrazhdane, also crossed the 4% threshold.
The result, if confirmed, would give Radev a rare outright parliamentary majority: Bulgaria’s first since the 1990s. It could finally end years of fragile coalitions and repeated elections. Sunday’s vote was the eighth since 2021.
A “big man” moment?
Radev’s victory can be interpreted as a triumph of personality-driven politics. His campaign centred almost entirely on his own image. His messaging focused on fighting corruption and dismantling what he calls an “oligarchic model”.
That approach has prompted comparisons with Hungary’s Viktor Orban, a dominant political figure (who was ousted recently) known for reshaping his country’s political system around a strong executive.
The comparison is not just stylistic. Like Orban, Radev has taken a more sceptical line on parts of the EU’s foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia and the war in Ukraine. During his presidency, he opposed sending military aid to Kyiv and questioned the effectiveness of sanctions on Moscow. Instead, he has argued for dialogue and “pragmatic” relations.
He has also framed his views in national terms, presenting himself as defending Bulgarian interests rather than aligning fully with Brussels. This echoes Orban’s long-standing narrative of national sovereignty first, even when it puts him at odds with wider EU consensus.
Both leaders have also benefited from public fatigue with traditional parties, positioning themselves as challengers to entrenched elites while consolidating support across ideological lines.
Yet the comparison has limits.
Not quite Orban
Unlike Orban, Radev has not campaigned on leaving or undermining the EU. He has insisted Bulgaria will remain on its European path, even while calling for “critical thinking and pragmatism” in Brussels. He has also avoided forming a tightly ideological party machine, instead building a broad coalition of disillusioned voters from across the spectrum.
Crucially, Bulgaria’s political system remains more fragmented and institutionally constrained. While Radev may govern alone, major reforms, especially in the judiciary, will still require wider parliamentary support.
Analysts also point out that his support base is unusually mixed, from pro-European voters concerned about corruption to more Russia-friendly constituencies. This balancing act may limit any sharp geopolitical shift.
Protest vote turned mandate
Radev’s rise is rooted in years of political instability and public anger. Since anti-corruption protests toppled a government in 2021, Bulgaria has cycled through elections with low turnout and little trust in parties.
This time, turnout rose (to 48.8 per cent, almost ten per cent higher than during the October 2024 election), and many voters, particularly younger ones, rallied behind a single figure promising change. For them, the election was less about foreign policy and more about breaking a long-standing political model associated with figures like Borissov.
Radev called his win a “victory of hope over distrust”, pledging to tackle corruption and restore effective governance.
What next?
Despite the scale of the victory, challenges remain. Bulgaria faces economic pressures, including inflation and slow investment growth. At the same time, expectations for reform are high.
The bigger question is whether Radev will govern as a reformer or evolve into a more dominant, centralised leader.
Former president Rumen Radev © Nikolay DOYCHINOV / AFP
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