NATO defence spending debate divides Belgian coalition
Will NATO’s defence spending target, currently set at 2 per cent of GDP, be raised to 5 per cent? The decision will be made later this month at a summit in The Hague, but the prospect is already sowing division within Belgium’s federal government.
“That 5 percent is actually logical”, said defence minister Theo Francken on Thursday, following a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels. There, secretary general Mark Rutte and US secretary of defence Pete Heghseth reiterated the need to raise the alliance’s spending benchmark. “But we are going to ask for flexibility”, Francken added. “We have already made an enormous effort, and it will not be easy to do even more.”
Francken’s comments, aligned with his party N-VA’s defence ambitions, put additional pressure on prime minister Bart De Wever. During the Easter agreement talks, De Wever already struggled to secure agreement on meeting the 2 per cent target due to political resistance and financing difficulties. The structural funding of that 2 per cent, amounting to 12.8 billion euros, has yet to be secured. In that context, finding funds for 5 per cent seems almost impossible.
Unsurprisingly, several coalition partners bristled at Francken’s remarks. “This is not the government’s position”, CD&V party leader Sammy Mahdi said. “Thirty billion euros per year, just for defence? Where would that money even come from?”
Deputy prime minister Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) echoed the sentiment. “Nothing has been decided on that”, he said. “We’re talking about an unbelievable amount of money. First and foremost, we need to ensure we’re using the funds wisely. We must invest in defence sensibly.”
Still, Francken did not stand entirely alone. Deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs Maxime Prévot defended him during an appearance on De Afspraak, insisting Francken had not acted unilaterally. “We all know that a status quo at 2 per cent is unacceptable for our international partners”, Prévot said. “We have to remain reliable allies.”
”We all know that a status quo at 2 per cent is unacceptable for our international partners”
His comments marked a shift in tone: just last month, Prévot had called 5% “excessive” given Belgium’s fiscal position and even labelled 3.5% “unfeasible” in the short or medium term. Now, he appears open to 5% - but only over the long haul. “We must argue for a long-term commitment of at least ten years”, he said.
With that, Belgium has found another fault line in its already fragile coalition. Alongside disagreements over the capital gains tax, defence spending is shaping up to be a major source of tension. In the coming weeks, fierce debate is expected over the mandate with which the prime minister will head to the NATO summit. Most likely, Belgium agrees to a target it has little chance of ever reaching.
Prime minister Bart De Wever © BELGA PHOTO NICOLAS MAETERLINCK