Looking ahead: 2024 was a year of clouds, will 2025 be a year of silver linings?
2024 wasn’t a dull year. It started with wars and conflicts -in Gaza, Ukraine, …- and things only got worse. Several of this year’s events will have an important impact on many people all over the world. But will the impact be as negative as expected? And what can still be done about it?
The death toll in as well Gaza and Ukraine continued to climb, while both conflicts got even broader. The attacks of Israël also targeted Lebanon, the West Bank, Iran and its Houthi allies. Russia now not only buys weapons but also soldiers from North Korea.
Also getting worse is the worldwide phenomenon of disinformation, fake news, polarisation, social media offensives. The undermining of democracies and societies has become big business, with important perpetrators. The presidential elections in Romania are not the only example indicating Russia puts major efforts into this form of hybrid warfare.
Another form of hybrid warfare in 2024 was the sabotage and the destruction of infrastructure (for communication, energy, …). Russia seems to use it to undermine Western countries, and China is also active in this field, so we assume.
Adult in the room
What many feared would become a reality by the end of 2024: the world has to tackle all these problems with Donald Trump as the US president. Since his election, Trump hasn’t toned down. Many of his public comments are very provocative and the people he chooses for his administration don’t comfort many. During his first presidency, the ‘adults in the room’ had to steer his decisions, now it looks as if Trump is one of the most adult in the room.
In European politics, there wasn’t much reason for optimism either. The two most important countries, France and Germany, are in the midst of severe political problems. Extremist populists are gaining ground everywhere, with the Netherlands as the most striking example.
In Belgium, politicians are unable to agree on budget cuts and structural reforms that are extremely necessary and urgent. Most people see the problems, but nobody is able to imagine the solution.
It’s not by looking at the economy that one gets more optimistic. The industry in Western countries is especially having a hard time due to high costs and fast technological evolutions. Instead of adapting to long-term necessities such as climate change and AI, companies have to work on how to survive.
To make things worse, companies have a feeling they are not understood. Due to the demographic evolution, there’s no rise in unemployment. There are still enough jobs, and as a result, there’s no broad sense of urgency.
2025
So, what hope is there for 2025? Are there reasons for optimism? With such a large number of major problems interlinked in many different ways, a global plan for a way out is unrealistic. But, here and there, there are elements that could lead us to that way out.
In the Middle East, there’s the fall of the Assad regime. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have lost a lot of their capacities. The same goes for Russia and Ukraine. The death toll is enormous, and both countries are suffering from the different consequences of the war. The fighting can’t continue forever.
But the main reason for hope is the absence of alternatives. The understanding that countries, people, companies will have to take up responsibility for their own future. Donald Trump is not entirely wrong when he says the world has been too dependent on the US. European countries (and others) will have to fend for themselves, when it comes to security and economy.
We know what the homework is. Everywhere, a new balance has to be found between economy and ecology, between globalisation and economic independence, between regulation and liberalisation. Countries will have to actively seek new alliances now the power in the world is shifting. It will not be simply the US versus China.
On the edge of the abyss, responsible people rise to the challenge. Let’s hope there are enough of those people in 2025.
© BELGA PHOTO NICOLAS MAETERLINCK
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