The EU’s struggle for geopolitical relevance
On Monday evening, EU ministers for foreign affairs will hold an emergency meeting primarily focused on Ukraine, with the bloc's role as a serious global actor under pressure. In Ukraine, the EU’s support came late and hesitantly. In Gaza, its voice has been muted. And in the South Caucasus, others are taking the lead. Across all these regions, the EU has tools to respond, but often struggles to deploy them.
The days of the EU being just a trading bloc are long gone. Built after World War II on the promise of peace through integration, the EU has expanded its membership, opened borders, and created a common currency.
The idea was simple: economic cooperation would prevent conflict. Over time, this grew into a wider political project, where shared rules and values would secure peace in and around Europe.
But the logic of peace through trade has reached its limits and the EU’s model of consensus and compromise seems to be insufficient. It is preventing the bloc from responding to hard power threats on the continent and beyond, undermining its credibility on the world stage. It is also eroding the EU’s core principles.
Ukraine
When Russia took Crimea in 2014 and backed fighting in eastern Ukraine, the EU held back. Leaders avoided strong action, afraid of damaging relations with Moscow. Ukraine was left to defend itself with limited support.
Since the full Russian invasion in 2022, the EU has increased its military and financial help. But major gaps remain: arms deliveries have been delayed, defence production fragmented and sanctions softened over time.
Eighteen rounds of sanctions have not remotely stopped Russia’s war machine. Meanwhile, Ukraine still waits for critical ammunition that Europe has promised but failed to deliver.
Gaza
The EU is also under pressure for its weak response to the war in Gaza. Since October 2023, Israel’s military campaign has led to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, infrastructure collapse and widespread famine. UN experts and international lawyers have raised concerns about possible war crimes.
Yet the EU has not suspended its partnership agreement with Israel, even though the deal requires respect for human rights. No sanctions have been introduced. Trade and arms exports continue. Internally, many EU staff have warned that this silence risks making the bloc “complicit”.
Caucasus
In the South Caucasus, the EU is increasingly sidelined. After Azerbaijan’s 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, the bloc’s role as mediator faded. Now Washington leads the talks: Donald Trump is talking with both Azerbaijan and Armenia to establish peace.
At the heart of it is a 100-year lease of the Zangezur corridor to a US firm, a route that would link Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, bypassing Iran and weakening Yerevan’s control.
Ironically, the leasing model began as a European idea. In 2021, EU diplomats quietly suggested an international corridor arrangement to reduce tensions. But lacking unity or urgency, Brussels never followed through.
Now the same concept reappears under US terms. For Armenia, it’s a sovereignty risk; for Iran, a strategic threat. For the EU, however, it’s another missed chance to shape its own neighbourhood.
Confrontational
The EU was built to prevent war and provide stability. But its leadership seems to be too slow and cautious for today’s threats. Russia is not looking for compromise. In Gaza, the humanitarian cost is rising. In the Caucasus, American and regional powers are filling the vacuum.
The EU still holds immense economic power and legal influence. But without the political will to act decisively, its relevance on the world stage will continue to fade.
© BELGA PHOTO HATIM KAGHAT
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