European Commission estimates Belgian budget deficit could rise to 5.9 per cent by 2027
Belgium is facing growing fiscal pressures, with its budget deficit expected to reach 5.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year. If no new measures are introduced, the deficit could rise to 5.5 per cent in 2026 and 5.9 per cent in 2027, according to the latest forecasts from the European Commission. National debt is also expected to continue increasing.
While the European economy is expected to grow by 1.4 per cent this year despite trade tensions with the US, Belgium’s finances are under strain. Rising costs linked to an ageing population, higher defence spending and interest payments are pushing the deficit higher.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that the federal government has not yet agreed on a full budget for 2026. Policymakers are under pressure to find a way to support economic growth while keeping public finances sustainable.
Negotiation deadlock
Belgium is already subject to the European excessive deficit procedure, which requires the deficit to fall below 3 per cent by the end of the legislative term in 2029. However, Bart De Wever’s government has struggled to finalise a multi-year budget.
Economic growth is expected to remain modest but steady. Belgium’s economy is projected to expand slightly in the coming years, helped by foreign demand and increased investment. However, domestic consumption is likely to be constrained by limited employment growth and ongoing inflationary pressures. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up slightly, while inflation should ease gradually.
Budget concerns remain acute. Among eurozone countries, only France is projected to have a larger deficit this year. While France’s deficit is expected to fall next year, Belgium’s is forecast to continue rising.
Facing these figures, De Wever has proposed 10 billion euros in budget cuts by 2029, including an index jump, slower growth in healthcare spending and a potential VAT increase. The latter is opposed by coalition partner MR, delaying agreement on the 2026 budget. De Wever has set Boxing Day as the deadline for a deal, cautioning that if no agreement is reached, “it’s game over” for him.
European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen and Belgian prime minister Bart de Wever arrive for a meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, 14 November 2025 © PHOTO NICOLAS TUCAT / AFP
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