Belgium core cabinet examines prison overcrowding as budget talks may resume on Sunday

Belgium’s core cabinet is meeting on Friday to discuss the Justice portfolio, with a particular focus on the chronic overcrowding of the country’s prisons. Although the federal budget is not formally on the agenda, several sources suggest that discussions may still touch on it before the meeting ends. A separate budget-focused session may follow on Sunday.

The Justice Department has long struggled with insufficient resources. Justice minister Annelies Verlinden (CD&V) previously argued that an additional one billion euro is needed to reverse years of underfunding, a proposal she herself labelled a “moonshot”. Last weekend, CD&V party leader Sammy Mahdi again urged the government to allocate more funds to Justice, emphasising that the budget will reveal how seriously the coalition treats public safety.

Prison overcrowding has dominated the debate this week. Trade unions have threatened to revert to minimum service levels from next month. Currently, Belgian prisons are holding 13,483 inmates, despite having an official capacity of only 11,098. This equates to a 20 per cent overpopulation rate, leaving 541 detainees to sleep on mattresses on the floor.

Ministers offered few comments on arrival at the meeting. The agenda appears broader than Justice alone: minister for Public Sector Modernisation, Vanessa Matz (Les Engagés), and minister for Asylum, Migration and Social Integration, Anneleen Van Bossuyt (N-VA), also joined the discussions at the prime minister’s office.

Progress on budget deal

Two weeks after prime minister Bart De Wever (N-VA) asked for fifty extra days to strike a budget deal, talks remain opaque and progress minimal. Pressed on the state of the talks, De Wever responded irritably: “I am working. Just give me five minutes.” His tone reflects mounting pressure: the European Commission now expects Belgium to run the eurozone’s largest deficit next year unless policy shifts.

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Given the delay, Belgium is likely to operate under provisional monthly funding in early 2026. De Wever has tabled a consolidation plan of at least ten billion euro, built around four measures: curbing long-term sickness expenditure, adjusting the healthcare growth norm, a limited wage indexation freeze, and a VAT rise.

Some parties have shown limited flexibility. Vooruit is open to a small VAT increase and a targeted index freeze for higher earners, while CD&V is willing to discuss VAT reform if it avoids a blanket rise. The MR remains firmly opposed to any tax increases, with its stance shaped by promises to voters about protecting purchasing power.

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