Belgian inflation on the rise, could trigger wage indexation faster than expected
Inflation in Belgium rose again in November, reaching its highest level in seven months. According to new figures from Statbel, overall inflation climbed back above the European Central Bank’s 2 per cent target, driven mainly by higher prices for services and certain consumer goods.
The general inflation rate rose from 2 per cent in October to 2.40 per cent in November, while inflation based on the health index increased from 2.11 to 2.45 per cent over the same period. That is more than expected, as the Planning Bureau had forecast only a modest rise.
Travel, household appliances, electricity, motor fuels, and smartphones exerted upward pressure on inflation, while airline tickets, holiday parks and natural gas helped moderate it. Core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed foods) continued to rise, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures. Energy inflation remained negative, while services and food inflation rose notably.
If inflation remains high in December, the public sector's indexation mechanisms could be triggered before the end of the year. This would result in social benefits and civil service wages increasing by 2 per cent in March 2026. Previously, Statbel had forecast the mechanism would trigger in January.
2.2% increase in 2026
Social security offices Acerta and SD Worx, meanwhile, calculated that over half a million workers in Belgium will receive a pay rise of about 2.2 per cent next year. That includes white-collar employees, food industry workers, catering and transport.
Wage indexation is calculated differently in Belgium's private sector. The timing and percentage depends on in which sector the employee is active, and are determined in binding collective agreements. The exact percentage will also depend on if the federal reform that would cap indexation on higher wages is approved before the end of 2025.
In any case, 2.2 per cent rise would be significantly lower than the strong indexation seen at the start of 2025, when wages rose by 3.58 per cent.
© BELGA PHOTO
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