Belgian Federal Planning Bureau expects less train travel and more road congestion by 2040

Fewer people will choose to travel by train in the coming years. Road congestion, on the other hand, threatens to increase. This is stated in the transport forecasts up to 2040 for passenger and goods transport, drawn up by the Federal Planning Bureau in cooperation with the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport. The forecasts are based on the assumption of an unchanged policy.

The total number of passenger kilometres travelled in 2040 will be 6.1% higher than in 2019. On the one hand, more people will be moving around (due to population growth), but this is compensated by a decrease in the average number of kilometres travelled per person. In 2040, that average will be 1% lower than in 2019. 

Trains in particular will be affected by teleworking. According to the forecasts, with an unchanged policy, the demand for passenger transport by rail will decrease in the coming years: -3% in 2040 compared to 2019. This is because "the standard profile of train users corresponds fairly well to the standard profile of the working population who can and want to telecommute".

Cars remain the most popular option

Additionally, the Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility expect that people will travel much more often on foot or by bike (+35% by 2040) in the coming years. Travel by bus, tram or metro will also improve according to the prognoses (+8.8%). 

However, the car remains by far the most widely used means of transport, with 82% in 2040 (from 83% in 2019). Despite a slight decline after 2030, the total number of passenger kilometres travelled by car in 2040 will still be 5.6% higher than in 2019. "The growth of total road transport causes an increase in traffic which, without new measures, leads to a decrease in speed on the road network as a result of traffic congestion," it says.

"We are working on an attractive train offer for passenger and for freight transport," reacted Mobility Minister Georges Gilkinet (Ecolo). "The idea is that within the various transport modes, the train will be chosen more often, so that the forecasts of the Federal Planning Bureau do not come true. Because the train is good for the climate, for our energy independence, for our health and for greater road safety."

(TOM)

© BELGA PHOTO KURT DESPLENTER