Belgian Court of Audit casts doubt on unemployment reform savings
The Court of Audit has raised doubts about the expected savings from the government’s unemployment reforms.
In a report on the 2026 budget, to be discussed in Parliament next week, the Court questions whether the changes will deliver the financial benefits promised by the government led by Bart De Wever.
The coalition agreed a multi-year budget plan until 2026 after lengthy talks late last year. Because the deal came too late to approve the 2025 budget before year-end, the government is currently operating on temporary monthly funding. The full budget has now been submitted to Parliament, along with the Court’s advice.
A key reform limits unemployment benefits to a maximum of two years. Earlier this year, people who had been unemployed for more than 20 years lost their benefits. Other long-term unemployed people will follow in March and April.
The government assumes that one third of those affected will find work, one third will claim social assistance from local welfare offices, and one third will disappear from the statistics. Based on this, it expects major savings. Earlier estimates suggested savings of more than €1.5 billion this year, rising to nearly €7.9 billion annually by 2029.
However, the Court of Audit questions these figures. It says higher employment will not happen overnight. People who lose benefits, especially those unemployed for over 20 years, are unlikely to find a job straight away. In the short term, the Court warns, there could even be a negative effect on the economy as incomes fall.
It also doubts whether as many as one third will find work, and notes that any jobs secured may not be long-term.
On the other hand, the number of people claiming social assistance may be higher than expected. The government has promised to fully compensate local welfare offices, but this funding is open-ended. The federal Public Service for Social Integration estimates costs of more than €500 million in both 2027 and 2028, which is far higher than the government planned.
Finally, the Court says the budget does not take into account that some long-term unemployed people may qualify for sickness benefits. It estimates that up to one third of those in Flanders losing benefits in the first three months of this year could apply for such support.
Employment service VDAB © BELGA PHOTO SISKA GREMMELPREZ