A turbulent autumn ahead: Belgian and European politics at a crossroads
As summer draws to a close, both Belgium and the European Union are bracing themselves for a politically fraught autumn. The conflict in Gaza is set to dominate agendas at every level, while domestic reforms, fiscal pressures and coalition tensions continue to mount. The political year resumes under the shadow of war, economic strain and fragile unity.
At the federal level, prime minister Bart De Wever, of N-VA, is confronted with a volatile combination of foreign and domestic challenges. The Gaza conflict has already threatened to split the coalition.
Partners CD&V and Les Engagés have called for harsher sanctions against Israel and have even suggested recognising Palestine. This stance is opposed by the francophone liberals MR and is being met with caution by De Wever himself.
Although the N-VA has softened its position slightly, deep divisions remain. Foreign minister Maxime Prévot of Les Engagés has put forward a proposal combining sanctions with the early recognition of Palestine. Ministers will reconsider this proposal as Belgium prepares its position ahead of the Franco-Saudi "New York Declaration" in early September.
Budget deficit
Meanwhile, the federal budget poses a significant challenge. The deficit already stands at 4.1 per cent of GDP (26.2 billion euros), and is projected to reach 40 billion euros by 2030 if current trends continue.
Defence spending, fixed at 2 per cent of GDP in response to Russian aggression, exacerbates the shortfall. The Court of Audit has also warned against overly optimistic revenue assumptions.
De Wever's state of the union address in October will therefore be shaped by challenging fiscal calculations and the necessity of implementing controversial reforms to pensions, capital gains and unemployment benefits.
Regional challenges
Regional politics offer no respite. In Flanders, minister president Matthias Diependaele of N-VA is entering the autumn having achieved several key goals, including the introduction of a new climate and energy plan, a fresh management contract for public broadcaster VRT and major infrastructure commitments.
However, there are still issues to be resolved: inheritance tax reform has been postponed, and tensions have resurfaced over the region’s position on Israel.
Governing parties Vooruit and CD&V are pushing for a tougher stance. They submitted a resolution to parliament without the support of the N-VA, calling on their government to take action.
Diependaele has invited his government's senior figures to a meeting on the issue, which is scheduled for Friday evening.
Whether the Flemish government can reconcile its promises and planned spending with its ambition to achieve a balanced budget by 2027 is another key question. The Social and Economic Council of Flanders has already voiced serious concerns about this target.
According to the council, the budget would be 3.2 billion euros in deficit in 2026, with a further shortfall of 753 million euros in 2027. Diependaele will present his September Declaration to parliament on 22 September.
Clash over arms exports
In Wallonia, minister president Adrien Dolimont of MR is also facing significant challenges. Parliament has already clashed over arms exports, amid reports that equipment with possible military applications is still being transported via Liège airport.
Dolimont insists that no licences are being granted that could strengthen either Israel or Hamas, and he has pledged to revise the 2012 arms decree by the end of the year.
Labour market reform adds to the workload, as regional authorities must now implement federal limits on unemployment benefits by managing reintegration schemes. The budget for 2026, which is set to be finalised in early October, will be limited by the lack of new revenue.
EU under strain
Above all this lies the European dimension. The EU begins the autumn facing significant challenges. On foreign policy, it has struggled to reach consensus on Gaza and has played a limited role in diplomatic initiatives regarding Ukraine.
Several member states, including France, are also dealing with internal political pressures.
The economic outlook remains uncertain. Europe’s industrial sector is under strain from high energy costs and global competition, while Germany’s economy shows little sign of growth.
Relations with the US, the EU’s largest trading partner, are experiencing renewed tension. Instead of a period focused on recovery and long-term planning, the union may find itself preoccupied with short-term crisis management.
© BELGA PHOTO HATIM KAGHAT
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